Financial inclusion, green bonds, and energy efficiency impact economic growth in Asia under institutional quality environment and global economic uncertainty

Abstract This study investigates how financial inclusion, green bonds, and energy efficiency influence economic growth in Asia, while exploring the moderating roles of institutional quality and global economic uncertainty. Using panel data from 2000 to 2023, the analysis employs system GMM as the primary method, supported by panel FMOLS for robustness. The findings show that financial inclusion and green bonds generally promote output growth, with energy efficiency exerting a consistently strong and positive effect. Institutional quality plays a complex role: governance factors such as the rule of law and political stability enhance growth when combined with energy efficiency, whereas indicators like control of corruption and voice and accountability display negative interactions. Global economic policy uncertainty has mixed effects but tends to support growth when paired with energy efficiency under stable governance. Importantly, the study uncovers critical threshold effects; improvements in institutional quality do not uniformly amplify energy efficiency impact. Maintaining governance above critical thresholds enables energy efficiency to contribute consistently to economic growth, whereas governance levels that fall below these points weaken its potential benefits, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty. These results highlight the need for targeted policies that broaden access to financial services, foster green bond markets aligned with sustainability goals, enforce energy efficiency standards supported by adaptive governance, and pursue institutional reforms balancing regulatory discipline with flexibility. Additionally, reducing economic uncertainty through trade diversification, stronger regional supply chains, and stable macroeconomic environments is essential. These insights provide a practical roadmap for achieving resilient, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth across Asia.