Applying the analytical hierarchy process to assess environmental migration drivers in coastal Bangladesh

This research analyzes the determinants of climate-induced migration in Khulna, Bangladesh using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) within a multiple-criteria decision analysis framework. Expert opinions were collected through structured pairwise comparison surveys from a multidisciplinary panel of professionals and aggregated using the geometric mean method within the AHP framework. The AHP results demonstrate that impact of storms emerged as the most influential factor having the weight of 0.2046, followed by flood-prone areas (0.1332) and salinity intrusion (0.1253), highlighting the dominant role of climatic hazards in shaping migration pressures. Mid-ranked factors include nearness to city areas (0.0970), river side location (0.0918), access to drinking water (0.0805) and water drainage system (0.0783), which underline the importance of urban infrastructure and settlement location in determining household vulnerability and migration decisions. Lower-ranked but contextually relevant factors are highland (0.0733), highway accessibility (0.0642) and topographic wetness (0.0510), which affect adaptive capacity and mobility. The overall consistency ratio (CR = 0.072) indicates that the judgments are statistically reliable. The findings provide decision-support evidence for climate adaptation planning, sustainable urban development, and migration governance in climate-vulnerable coastal regions of Bangladesh.