Analysis of electricity usage evolution in Madagascar from 2008 to 2021 using utility data and statistical methods

This study investigates the evolution and sectoral dynamics of electricity usage in Madagascar from 2008 to 2021, using exclusive operational data from Jiro sy Rano Malagasy (JIRAMA), the national electricity utility. Covering over 50 power plants across the country’s 23 administrative regions, the dataset includes monthly statistics on electricity production, consumption, losses, costs, and customer profiles segmented by residential, industrial, commercial, and lighting sectors. Using R and Python, the data were cleaned and analyzed through time series, descriptive statistics, linear regression, and correlation methods. The results reveal a consistent increase in electricity production (+ 73%) and consumption (+ 61%), especially in the residential sector (+ 82%), driven by a 54% rise in customer numbers. Industrial and commercial sectors also saw significant demand growth, while the lighting sector showed a decline in consumption despite stable subscriber numbers. High correlation coefficients (R > 0.98) confirm strong linear relationships between consumption, cost, and customer growth across all sectors. However, persistent gaps between production and consumption point to technical inefficiencies and infrastructure limitations. Electricity prices have more than doubled, with marked surges observed after 2015, reflecting rising operational costs and network expansion. The findings underline the urgent need for targeted investments in energy infrastructure, loss reduction strategies, and equitable pricing policies to ensure sustainable and inclusive energy access across Madagascar’s diverse regions.