Longitudinal analysis of cash crop yield responses to inputs farm management and climate adaptation practices in Ethiopia

This study examines primary factors affecting yield dynamics in Ethiopia’s cash crop sector using data from the Ethiopian Annual Agricultural Survey (2003–2021). The analysis constructs a pseudo-panel and applies a dynamic system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) estimator within a modified Cobb–Douglas framework. The findings suggest a smaller positive path dependency effect, given that a 1% growth in previous cash crop yields is associated with a 0.035% rise in present yields. The effects of the main inputs are mixed, based on their elasticity coefficients. The application of urea fertiliser had a positive coefficient (0.145), whereas land used for planting and diammonium phosphate fertiliser had negative coefficients (− 0.133 and − 0.119, respectively), which could indicate diminishing returns and excessive application of these two inputs. Extension is found to positively affect output by approximately 11.84%, whereas soil conservation activities are observed to reduce yields by approximately 4.86% in the short term. The use of natural fertilisers resulted in the lowest increase in yield of approximately 5.26%, whereas the use of chemical crop protection, particularly fungicides, increased yield by 13.35%. Ethiopian policy programs such as PASDEP and GTP-II have been shown to be effective in increasing productivity, with PASDEP increasing by as much as 348.36%. Therefore, the effective use of inputs, extension services, and focused policy interventions appear to remain the key drivers for enhancing cash crop productivity in Ethiopia.