Assessing hydropower generation potential in the Mekong River Basin under future climate scenarios

Abstract Energy consumption in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) has surged in recent decades due to population growth, urbanization, and economic development, with electricity demand increasing by approximately 10% per year. To ensure energy security and mitigate carbon emission, renewable energy adoption, particularly hydropower, has accelerated across the region. This study evaluates the impacts of future climate change on hydropower generation using the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections integrated with the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model. The results indicate substantial increases in annual discharge and total reservoir inflow under future climate scenarios. However, turbine flow capacity constraints significantly limit the potential gains in energy output: a projected 22% rise in inflow translates to only a 5% increase in hydropower generation. Most hydropower facilities in the MRB are characterized by relatively small turbine capacities, restricting their ability to convert additional inflows into energy. These findings suggest that future hydropower development should prioritize upgrading turbine flow capacities, particularly for hydropower along the Mekong mainstream, to more effectively utilize increased water availability and enhance regional energy production under changing climatic condition.