An Analysis of the Process and Attributes Used in the Transaction Evidence Appraisal Method for USDA Forest Service Timber Sales in the US Southwest

Evaluating the cost of fuel treatment operations is an essential aspect for mitigating elevated wildfire risks across western US landscapes. The USDA Forest Service (Forest Service) currently uses a Transaction Evidence Appraisal (TEA) method to appraise stumpage, incorporating key factors such as stump-to-truck processing, slash disposal, transportation, timber markets, and bidder competition. This study aims to improve our understanding of the total costs involved and final advertised rates in fuel treatment operations in Forest Service Regions 2 and 3. Stump-to-truck processing and timber transportation to mills represented the greatest share of TEA costs, comprising 96% of sale estimates in Region 2 and 94% in Region 3. TEA costs are significantly influenced by factors such as volume per acre, skidding distance, and proximity to processing facilities. Additionally, regression analysis examining bids identified total sawtimber sale volumes and travel time as key factors influencing high bid amounts. Refining TEA cost estimation methods and strategically structuring future sales could enhance the effectiveness and scalability of mechanical thinning treatments on national forests.