Unravelling systemic challenges in the governance of subsidized fertilizer allocation and distribution for rice production in Indonesia: a systems thinking approach

Abstract Fertiliser is important in enhancing rice yields and strengthening farmers' economic stability in Indonesia. To achieve this, the Indonesian government has implemented a fertiliser subsidy policy. However, despite its intended benefits, the program's effectiveness has been undermined by persistent challenges. This study explores the complexity of Indonesia's subsidised fertiliser allocation and distribution system and identifies underlying issue patterns. Using a qualitative systems thinking approach, this research integrates data from stakeholder interviews with a causal loop diagram (CLD) developed through group model building (GMB) sessions, and validated at the national level through focus group discussion (FGD). The findings illustrate intricate interdependencies of variables within the system. An overlooked pattern also emerges: how well-intentioned government responses inadvertently exacerbate problems through mechanisms described by the ‘fixes that fail’ archetype. This study offers practical insights for policymakers to strengthen governance mechanisms, prevent recurring fertiliser shortages, and improve national food security through more sustainable, long-term strategies.