Spatial prediction of Vatiga illudens (Hemiptera: Tingidae) on cassava crops: a newly invasive pest in Indonesia

Abstract Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz.) is a strategic tropical commodity for food security, but its production is now threatened by the cassava lace bug Vatiga illudens (Hemiptera: Tingidae), an invasive pest that has recently been reported in Indonesia. This study used an optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential distribution of V. illudens and the environmental factors that influence it. A total of 25 presence points were analyzed together with selected bioclimatic variables using ENMeval. The best model (linear features, RM = 1) showed high accuracy (ΔAICc = 0; validation AUC = 0.81; test AUC = 0.86). Rainfall proved to be the dominant predictor, especially BIO19 (coldest quarter, 67.4% contribution), followed by BIO13 (wettest month) and BIO18 (hottest quarter). Distribution maps project high suitability zones in the southern corridor of Indonesia (South Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Timor) as well as clusters in South Sulawesi and South Papua. These areas overlap with national cassava production centers, indicating a significant risk to food security. These findings underscore the importance of climate-based monitoring, strengthening biosecurity, and implementing integrated pest management. This approach also provides a predictive framework for assessing the risk of other tropical invasive pests in order to maintain long-term food security.