Stay or leave: The Immigration High School Entrance Examination Policy and parental intention for migrant children's education-driven return migration in China

This paper investigates the impact of the Immigration High School Entrance Examination Policy (IHSEE) on parental intention for migrant children's education-driven return migration (PIER) in China. Using data from the China Education Panel Survey (CEPS) in 2014-2015 academic year, we find that IHSEE restrictions not only significantly increase PIER, but also strengthen such intention as policy constraints become more severe among migrant children in China. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that while these restrictions generally elevate PIER, their effects are particularly pronounced among girls, non-only children, and students with higher cognitive ability. Mechanism analysis suggests that the impacts of the IHSEE can be explained by the lower parental education and career expectations, and a decline in parental enthusiasm for educational investment. Our study contributes to the literature on restrictive urban education policies by providing robust empirical evidence and offers a plausible explanation for the emergence of large-scale left-behind children in China.