The COVID-19 shock to the Vietnamese Economy: A Comparative Input–Output Analysis with Emerging Asian Economies

• Applies a counterfactual input–output model quantifies Vietnam’s COVID-19 sectoral impacts. • Reveals Vietnam’s remarkable output gains amid other Asian countries’ downturn, and significant growth in final demand. • Export-oriented manufacturing and services were the most vulnerable to pandemic shocks. • Essential sectors such as agriculture, transport equipment, and ICT proved highly resilent. • Provides a comparative analysis with seven emerging Asian economies, highlighting Vietnam’s exceptional performance. This study is the first to apply a counterfactual Input–Output approach to evaluate Vietnam’s economic performance during the COVID-19 pandemic in a regional comparative context. By contrasting actual 2020 outcomes with a no-pandemic baseline, we quantify changes in total output and final demand. Results show that Vietnam’s economy demonstrated remarkable resilience: total output increased by 3.63 % and final demand by 2.59%, in stark contrast to declines observed in many emerging Asian economies. However, sectoral impacts were highly uneven. Export-oriented manufacturing industries, such as textiles, and service sectors, notably hotels and restaurants, suffered severe contractions. By constrast, essential sectors including transport equipment, agriculture, and post and telecommunications experienced notable growth, driven by domestic demand and increased digital connectivity. These findings highlight the value of counterfactual modeling in evaluating sector-specific impacts of exogenous shocks and offer policy-relevant insights for strengthening economic resilience and formulating targeted recovery strategies in the post-pandemic era.