Integrating water evaluation and adaptation planning with enhanced sustainable development goals impact assessment for sustainable irrigation optimization in water stressed agricultural basin

This study advances prior approaches by integrating Water Evaluation and Adaptation Planning (WEAP) modelling with a novel Enhanced Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Impact Assessment Framework (ESIAF) to holistically evaluate irrigation scenarios in water-stressed agricultural regions such as the Indus Basin. Applied to the Chaj Doab region within Pakistan's Indus Basin, this research fills a critical gap in canal-specific, SDG-linked planning for water-stressed agricultural regions. In this integrated approach, the WEAP model simulated physical system responses, quantifying that the optimal scenario (Scenario 3) improves water-use efficiency by 32.4 % (to 67.55 kg/m³) and increases crop yields by 74 %. The ESIAF sustainability assessment reveals this scenario achieves a Final Sustainability Score (FSS) of 0.66 with a Sustainability Balance Index (SBI) of 0.86, demonstrating robust alignment with SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). Conversely, climate change projections (Scenario 5) indicate system reliability could plummet to 34–35 %, underscoring the urgency of adaptive measures. The WEAP-ESIAF coupling provides a replicable decision-support tool that offers direct insights for implementing Pakistan's National Water Policy (2018) and guiding sustainable irrigation investments in semi-arid, glacier-dependent basins. • Integration of daily Water Evaluation and Planning modeling with Enhanced Sustainable Development Goals Impact Assessment Framework (ESIAF) at canal command. • Scenario 3 boosts Upper Jhelum Canal reliability by 23 % and water efficiency by 32.4 %. • Climate change reduces system reliability to 34.36–34.87 % under RCP 4.5/8.5. • ESIAF identifies Scenario 3 as optimal (Final Sustainability Score = 0.66; Sustainability Balance Index = 0.86) for Sustainable Development Goals alignment. • Provides actionable template for canal-level water management in semi-arid basins