Pathways to agricultural water use efficiency in the Yangtze River economic belt: Technological, economic, and institutional perspectives

Enhancing Agricultural Water Use Efficiency (AWUE) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is fundamental to safeguarding food security and promoting sustainable agricultural development. To investigate the synergistic driving effects of technological, economic, and institutional factors on the evolutionary dynamics of AWUE, this study constructs a three-dimensional theoretical framework. Using panel data for 11 provinces in the YREB from 2014 to 2023, this study first employs the super-efficiency SBM model incorporating undesirable outputs to assess provincial-level AWUE. Second, qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is used to identify multiple concurrent causal pathways underlying high AWUE, and multi-period QCA is further applied to explore the evolution of configurations. Finally, the Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test is performed to compare consistency variations among the detected configurations. The empirical results indicate that: (1) AWUE in the YREB exhibits a significant upward trend over time, with marked regional differences: downstream > upstream > midstream. (2) Four configurational pathways conducive to high AWUE are identified: Technology Economy Driven, Economy Driven, Institution Driven, and Technology Economy Institution Interaction. The driving pathways shifted from Technology Driven during 2014–2018 to Economy Driven from 2019 to 2023. (3) Low per capita disposable income is the core constraint restricting AWUE across the YREB. (4) The midstream region demonstrates weak adaptability to the core pathways, implying substantial potential for efficiency improvement.