Modeling Germany’s hydrogen future: Insights into spatial distribution, imports, and policy alignment

Hydrogen production will likely see a vast increase in the coming years, following rapid decarbonization efforts globally. This urges Germany to develop a hydrogen economy. However, urgent questions remain regarding the optimal distribution of production sites and hydrogen imports. This study employs the open-source Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) to quantitatively determine an optimal hydrogen strategy for Germany and compare it to current national plans. Unlike previous studies that focused on individual elements, this study integrates multiple critical aspects of a hydrogen strategy into a holistic and integrated approach. The model aims to determine the ideal geographic distribution for hydrogen production, assess the role of domestic production, and evaluate the influence of import prices and technology costs. The analysis takes national policies such as the National Hydrogen Strategy, the Hydrogen Core Network, and the Spatial Development Plan into account. The results highlight the potential of a primarily domestic and decentralized hydrogen strategy for Germany, with northern regions, especially Lower Saxony, as key suppliers. By 2050, imports account for only 2–3% of hydrogen supply under current model assumptions. However, our sensitivity analysis shows that the share of domestic production and imports is highly elastic to hydrogen import prices. A comparison of our optimal hydrogen strategy with current national policies shows alignment in areas such as geographic distribution and decentralized production. However, differences in reliance on hydrogen imports and infrastructure requirements underline the need for adaptive strategies that balance cost-efficiency with policy goals. Despite uncertainties, particularly in hydrogen import prices, the spatial distribution of electrolyzers and transport infrastructure provides a solid foundation for hydrogen deployment.