A hybrid ABM-PDE framework for real-world infectious disease simulations

This paper presents a hybrid modelling approach that couples an Agent-Based Model (ABM) with a partial differential equation (PDE) model in an epidemic setting to simulate the spatial spread of infectious diseases using a compartmental structure with seven health states. The goal is to reduce the computational complexity of a full-ABM by introducing a coupled ABM-PDE model that offers significantly faster simulations while maintaining comparable accuracy. Our results demonstrate that the hybrid model not only reduces the overall simulation runtime (defined as the number of runs required for stable results multiplied by the duration of a single run) but also achieves smaller errors across both 25% and 100% population samples. The coupling mechanism ensures consistency at the model interface: agents crossing from the ABM into the PDE domain are removed and represented as density contributions, while surplus density in the PDE domain is used to generate agents with plausible trajectories derived from mobile phone data. We evaluate the hybrid model using real-world mobility and infection data for the Berlin-Brandenburg region in Germany, showing that it captures the core epidemiological dynamics while enabling efficient large-scale simulations. These results demonstrate that the proposed ABM-PDE framework provides a robust and computationally efficient alternative to full-scale agent-based simulations, making it suitable for realistic epidemic modelling and scenario analysis.