Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors analysis of water conservation – water regulation – socio-economic development coupling coordination in the Yellow River mainstem

Starting from the needs of refined basin management, this study constructed a three-dimensional coupling coordination analysis framework integrating water conservation (WC), water regulation (WR), and socio-economic development (SED). This approach addressed existing research limitations in distinguishing between the “efficiency enhancement” and “constraint management” dimensions. Using data from 44 prefecture-level administrative regions along the Yellow River mainstem from 2014 to 2023, this study systematically revealed the spatiotemporal evolution of coupling coordination within the WC-WR-SED system and its influencing factors through the integrated application of the coupling coordination degree model, spatio-temporal geographical weighted regression (GTWR), and the Geo-detector method. The results indicated that the coupling coordination degree exhibited a stable gradient pattern, with “downstream > midstream > upstream”, and the overall differences evolve in an “inverted U-shape” pattern, with intra-provincial differences being the primary contributor. The influence of factors such as the proportion of unconventional water utilization to total water use and Engel’s coefficient showed significant spatial heterogeneity, accompanied by nonlinear enhancement effects among these factors. This study deepens the understanding of synergistic patterns in water-human systems within water-scarce basins, providing a scientific basis for differentiated collaborative governance in the Yellow River Basin.