Climatic niche dynamics and potential range expansion of the invasive cerambycid Xylotrechus chinensis in Europe

Xylotrechus chinensis (Chevrolat, 1852) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae – tiger longhorn beetle) is an Asian wood-boring species recently detected in Europe, where it is causing significant mortality in Morus trees. We analysed its ecological niche dynamics and tested the hypothesis of a climatic niche shift by comparing the climatic conditions associated with native and invasive populations. Ecological niche analyses allowed us to quantify five processes - abandonment, pioneering, unfilling, expansion, and stability - and to map their spatial patterns across Europe. Our results indicate that the recent establishment of this species in Europe is not associated with a climatic niche shift, although some populations in the Mediterranean basin occur under slightly warmer and drier conditions than those observed in the native range. The current distribution of X. chinensis in Europe remains limited due to its recent introduction. The effect of host tree availability on range expansion is difficult to assess, as uncertainty remains regarding the host range of the species. Current European climatic conditions are broadly favorable, suggesting that substantial range expansion is likely. Under future climate scenarios, the area of climatically suitable habitat is projected to increase further during the period 2041–2060. These findings highlight the high potential for expansion of the species in Europe and the need for early monitoring and management. More broadly, this study illustrates how integrating ecological niche dynamics with spatial projections can support anticipatory risk assessment frameworks for invasive pests under climate change. Similar approaches could be applied to a wide range of emerging invasive species to improve biosecurity preparedness, early warning systems, and targeted surveillance strategies.