Hematological malignancies in North Africa: contemporary estimates and projections for 2050

Hematological malignancies are a major contributor to cancer morbidity and mortality in North Africa, yet regional epidemiologic data remain limited. The region’s distinct demographic, sociocultural, and healthcare characteristics underscore the need for contemporary, country-specific estimates. This study characterizes the current burden of leukemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), and multiple myeloma (MM) across six North African nations and projects their future burden to 2050. We extracted incidence and mortality estimates for hematological malignancies from GLOBOCAN 2022 for Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia. Age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated using the Segi-Doll world standard population. Projections to 2050 were generated by applying 2022 ASIRs and ASMRs to UN World Population Prospects demographic forecasts, assuming stable rates over time. Analyses were stratified by cancer type and sex. In 2022, hematological malignancies accounted for 9% of all cancer incidence (31,876 cases) and 10% of cancer deaths (18,241 deaths) in North Africa. Leukemia and NHL comprised nearly four-fifths of incidence and mortality. Men experienced consistently higher ASIRs and ASMRs than women across all countries. By 2050, cases and deaths are projected to nearly double to 61,144 and 40,004, respectively, driven predominantly by population growth and ageing. MM exhibited the fastest relative growth, particularly in Libya and Mauritania. Hematological malignancies represent a substantial and rising public health burden in North Africa. Strengthening cancer registries, diagnostics, workforce capacity, and equitable access to essential and advanced therapies is critical to mitigate the projected increase and to support regionally tailored cancer control strategies.