Climate change mitigation potential of producing wood-based materials and energy from restoring degraded land in Indonesia – A nation-wide scenario analysis

The ongoing land use and land cover changes (LUCC) in Indonesia significantly contribute to climate warming and land degradation. At the same time, competing policy frameworks and land contestation are emerging, particularly regarding degraded land utilization for restoration and commodity production (e.g., timber, bioenergy). However, no study has assessed, at the national scale, the spatial availability of degraded land suitable for timber plantations and the associated carbon implications. Here, we combine a Geographical Information System (GIS)-based land suitability analysis with a dynamic material flow and life cycle assessment (MFA–LCA) framework to evaluate the climate mitigation potential of restoring degraded lands for wood materials and energy in Indonesia. The GIS analysis identifies 0.44–3.60 Mha of degraded land suitable for Acacia, Teak, and Rubber plantations, depending on degraded land definitions and biophysical constraints. The dynamic MFA–LCA model quantifies temporal carbon emissions and sequestration from biospheric and technospheric carbon flows over a 200-year time horizon. Our results show reforesting degraded land exhibits the highest climate benefit, achieving up to −456 Mt CO 2 -eq over 200 years. In comparison, wood plantations yield less mitigation effects, with cumulative emissions ranging from −324 to 1130 Mt CO 2 -eq depending on species and scenarios. Teak offers the greatest long-term carbon sequestration potential (−47 to −324 Mt CO 2 -eq), while fast-growing Acacia supports short-term targets, potentially reducing Indonesia's 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) emissions by 5.7%. These findings highlight the need for policies that balance immediate emission reductions with long-term carbon sequestration through spatially targeted degraded land restoration. • Spatially explicit degraded land scenarios to grow wood plantations in Indonesia. • Teak generates lower carbon emissions than Acacia and Rubber in the long-term. • Reforesting restored degraded land exhibits the highest climate benefit. • From a climate perspective, leaving the degraded land idle shall be avoided.