Case studies of the impact of Industrialisation on tropical Island environments: a digital urban climate twin (DUCT) model applied to Singapore

• Innovative Framework: The study uses the Digital Urban Climate Twin (DUCT) for advanced urban climate modelling. • Impact of Industrial Emissions: Jurong Island’s emissions significantly influence the air temperature of Singapore Main Island. • Advanced Mapping: Utilizes Local Climate Zone (LCZ) mapping and sophisticated methodologies for more accurate climate insights. • Urban Heat Island Effect: Limited mean impact from JI emissions, but localized areas experience notable temperature differences. • Climate Management: DUCT provides a scalable framework for integrating climate data with urban development policies. This paper investigates, through numerical modelling, the impact of increased industrialization on the environmental conditions of a tropical island. While islands surrounded by ocean are often assumed to benefit from ample ventilation via diurnal sea breezes, our analysis reveals the sensitivity of these warm climates to additional thermal loading from anthropogenic sources. We present the Digital Urban Climate Twin (DUCT), a sophisticated framework developed for modeling urban meteorological processes in the Singapore region. Leveraging the Singapore Framework of Interconnected Digital Twin (FIDT), DUCT incorporates substantial modifications to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, including enhanced land use representation through Local Climate Zone (LCZ) mapping, improved anthropogenic heat ingestion procedures, and algorithm refinements. A comprehensive case study of Jurong Island, conducted using the National Supercomputing Centre (NSCC) Singapore, examines micro-meteorological impacts across four months representing Singapore’s distinct seasonal regimes (February, April, July, and October). The analysis quantifies diurnal temperature profiles, three-dimensional wind circulation patterns, statistical model evaluation, and Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects. Results demonstrate that industrial emissions from Jurong Island produce localized temperature increases up to ±0.5 °C on the Singapore Mainland, with UHI intensities reaching + 6 °C within the industrial area during nocturnal hours. The DUCT framework reduces simulation errors (RMSE < 1.2 °C) compared to default WRF configurations, advancing our understanding of urban heat distribution and air circulation in tropical coastal environments. This approach demonstrates potential applicability to other climate regions facing similar urbanization and industrialization challenges.