How does environmental regulation reshape global value chain resilience?

Escalating ecological challenges, such as global warming and environmental pollution, have made carbon emission control and enhanced environmental governance global priorities. Concurrently, growing external uncertainties have intensified instability in global value chains (GVCs), causing disruptions like bottlenecks and breakdowns. This study measures GVC resilience using input-output data from the OECD-ICIO database (2000–2020) and applies a country-industry-year fixed-effects model to investigate how environmental regulations—aimed at reducing pollution and carbon emissions—influence GVC resilience. Results show that environmental regulation exerts dual effects: it reduces GVC volatility but increases security risks. Further analysis reveals that these regulations weaken GVC resilience mainly by raising costs and hindering technological innovation, while they improve stability through trade facilitation (though at the cost of security). Notably, improved energy efficiency strengthens GVC resilience. This research provides theoretical insights and policy implications for enhancing GVC resilience via environmental regulation.