Multi-criteria assessment of maize value chain sustainability: A case study of Thailand

Maize-based feed production in Thailand and the Mekong region drives deforestation, residue burning, greenhouse gas emissions, and nutrient losses, yet integrated evidence on regenerative circular options is scarce. This study develops an integrated value-chain assessment combining substance flow analysis, carbon and phosphorus circularity indicators, 100-year carbon sequestration modeling, satellite-based burned-area and particulate matter estimates, and life cycle assessment to evaluate baseline performance and four improvement scenarios, from all-compost and all-pyrolysis pathways to a hybrid compost–pyrolysis system and highland agroforestry with maize import substitution. Results show that maximizing nutrient circularity does not guarantee maximal climate mitigation: all-compost strategies achieve high P recycling and zero burning but provide limited long-term carbon storage (10% compost C stability over 100 years), whereas full pyrolysis can triple carbon sequestration by stabilizing residues as biochar (68% stability), turning the sector into a net carbon sink. Agroforestry-based land-use change achieves the highest circularity (approximately 42% C and 38% P) by integrating perennial biomass, but it also introduces reliance on imported grain and potential leakage. Overall, the analysis highlights that technically optimal climate solutions face significant logistical barriers and that hybrid, node-matched configurations of pyrolysis, composting, and agroforestry, supported by targeted economic and policy instruments, provide the most realistic pathways to a genuinely regenerative circular maize value chain. • Maximizing nutrient circularity does not guarantee maximal climate mitigation. • Pyrolysis triples carbon sequestration turning maize sector into carbon sink. • Compost achieves high P recycling but provides limited carbon storage. • Agroforestry achieves highest circularity but increases import dependence. • Hybrid pyrolysis-compost systems offer most realistic regenerative pathways.