Decarbonising the Nordic-Baltic power market: Impacts of renewable electricity expansion on CO2 emissions and fuel use by 2030

This study analyses how the Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) developments, including solar photovoltaic (solar PV) and onshore wind, will impact carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) intensity and fuel based electricity generation in the Nordic and Baltic power market by 2030. Over the past decade, CO 2 emissions in electricity generation have been reduced through the large-scale VRE integration in the region, and it is expected to continue. In this study, the Nordic and Baltic interconnected multinational power market is modelled using the PLEXOS advanced energy system simulation tool. Six scenarios are analysed with varying levels of VRE. The results show that current prospects may reduce the CO 2 intensity of electricity in the Nordic region by 34% and in the Baltic region by 47% in 2030 compared to 2024 levels. This is mainly due to the coal phaseout, Estonia's reduction in oil shale usage, and increased cross-border electricity trade. Accelerated VRE developments only in the Nordic region would reduce CO 2 intensity of electricity in the Baltic region by 51%. These results highlight that VRE developments in the Nordic region are crucial for decarbonising the Baltic region while maintaining supply security. Strategic planning for VRE integration is required, since natural gas and CO 2 emission trading price fluctuations could deter the VRE implementation in the Baltic region. Biomass utilisation could be reduced with significantly more VRE development than current plans to prevent further decline of natural carbon sinks. These results provide a quantitative basis for further environmental and lifecycle analyses.