A simplified method for calculating the multi-hit kill probability of aircraft targets considering variable vulnerable area

Aircraft vulnerability assessment is crucial for enhancing survivability and guiding design improvements against hostile threats. In cumulative kill probability analysis under multiple-hit conditions, existing methods generally face a clear trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. Exact approaches based on Monte Carlo simulations provide high-fidelity results but are computationally intensive and unsuitable for rapid evaluation, whereas simplified methods offer high efficiency but often suffer from significant accuracy degradation. In this study, the errors of traditional simplified cumulative kill probability methods are quantitatively evaluated through comparison with Monte Carlo–based exact calculations, and the underlying mechanisms responsible for these errors are systematically analyzed. On this basis, an improved simplified method that explicitly considers variable vulnerable areas induced by successive hits is developed. All required parameters are obtained solely from single hit vulnerability analysis, thereby avoiding reliance on Monte Carlo simulations in multi-hit scenarios. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method effectively captures the dynamic evolution of vulnerable areas under multiple hit conditions, achieving high accuracy and robustness while maintaining computational efficiency. The proposed approach provides an efficient and reliable tool for rapid battle damage assessment and ammunition effectiveness evaluation.