Reliability Modeling and Analysis of Folding Wing Deployment Systems Considering Multiple Stages and Failure Dependence

The folding wing deployment system is a critical and indispensable system for a wide range of aircraft types, and its reliability plays a pivotal role in ensuring the successful accomplishment of the intended mission. However, the folding wing deployment mechanism is characterized by distinct features such as multi-stage operational processes, multi-component interactions, and failure-related dependencies. Most of the existing reliability studies focusing on the folding wing deployment mechanism fail to fully take these characteristics into account, which results in significant errors in the reliability models that have been established. This paper conducts a detailed analysis of the failure mechanism and failure modes of the folding wing deployment mechanism during the two key stages of expansion and locking. It then develops a comprehensive simulation model of the folding wing deployment mechanism, explicitly clarifying the intrinsic relationship between the performance parameters of the folding wing deployment mechanism and the varying levels of wind speed in different operational stages, and determines the correlation between wind speed levels and the stress exerted on key structural components by leveraging the response surface method. Furthermore, based on the dynamic stress-strength interference model and statistical averaging algorithm, the paper establishes a reliability model for the folding wing deployment mechanism, with full consideration given to the failure dependence among components. Through an illustrative example analysis, it is demonstrated that the reliability model of the folding wing deployment system, which incorporates the consideration of multi-stage failure dependence, can more accurately reflect the actual status of system reliability. In addition, the model proposed in this paper only requires the determination of the distribution of several unfolding performance parameters under deterministic wind speed levels, which greatly facilitates its practical application in engineering scenarios.