Underlying drivers of temporal-spatial energy consumption from the perspective of the government in China

Energy consumption (EC) is a core factor in maintaining sustainable development; little is known about the drivers of temporal-spatial EC changes and the corresponding inequality from the perspective of government, thereby weakening the policy implications for energy conservation and emission reduction. To fill this gap, this study uses spatial-temporal logarithmic mean Divisia index models and extended Theil index inequality models to investigate the drivers of EC changes and inequality, considering the scale and structure of governmental environmental expenditure (EG) across 30 Chinese provinces from 2007 to 2021. The findings reveal that: First, EG acts as a positive driver of total EC, while industrial investment efficiency and fiscal expenditure pressure exert negative effects. Second, disparities in EG functions act as a negative driver, accounting for a 4.56% decrease in average interprovincial EC gaps. Third, China’s EC inequality demonstrated an overall upward trajectory from 0.074 to 0.093 over the period, mainly driven by positive contributions from inequalities in EG and the fiscal expenditure structure. This study highlights the importance of optimizing the government expenditure structure and scale in formulating policies for sustainable EC.