Future wind energy potential for wind farm development in Africa based on bias-corrected NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 wind projections

This study enhances wind energy resource assessment under climate change by applying a robust bias correction framework to NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 projections for ten wind farm stations across Africa at 150-m hub heights. We assessed wind speed, wind power density, variability, and capacity factor under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Model performance shows regional disparities, with higher accuracy in East and Southern Africa (correlations 0.86–0.96) than in North and West Africa (correlations 0.63–0.73). Baseline analysis highlights North Africa’s Sahara-Sahel and East Africa’s highlands as high-potential regions (6–8 m/s, 100–300 W/m 2 ), while Central and West Africa exhibit lower resources (1–3 m/s, 100%) highlight East and West African potential. This study provides guidance for wind farm site selection, supporting Africa’s renewable energy transition. • Bias-corrected CMIP6 enhances African wind projections at 150m hub height • East/West Africa project >80% wind power density gains under SSP5-8.5 • North Africa shows minimal/negative wind changes in future scenarios • Seasonal trends: Winter gains in West Africa (+90% power density) • Capacity factors rise >30% in East African coastal sites by 2100