When do refugees regret their decision to flee? The role of perceived forcedness, perils during migration and counterfactual thinking

Experiences of migration can elicit various emotions. We examined refugees’ feelings of regret, a painful emotion, about leaving their country of origin. Drawing on social-cognitive approaches, we expected that experiences of perils (risks, dangers) faced during migration and perceived forcedness of migration would interact in predicting regret. To examine underlying processes, we assessed counterfactual thinking (CFT), a process known to drive regret. In a pre-registered study with Arabic-speaking refugees (N= 388), we found that regret was negatively associated with forcedness and with perils (before and during migration) but positively with post-arrival stressors. Downward CFT (things could have been worse if they had not left their country) was positively associated with migration perils and perceived forcedness but negatively with regret. Upward CFT (things could have been better) was positively associated with regret. A moderated mediation analysis indicated that perceived forcedness attenuated the effect of perils on downward CFT and the indirect effect of perils via downward CFT on regret. Hence, regret may be reduced to the extent that past experiences of perils are justified through downward CFT, but these processes are less relevant under high forcedness. Also, post-arrival stressors increased upward CFT and regret but had no effect on downward CFT, suggesting that, different from past migration perils, current post-migration stress induces the need for justification, perhaps due to cognitive dissonance. These findings enhance our understanding of refugees' unique psychological responses to migration.