Multidimensional interactive pathways of adaptive capacity to extreme rainfall: Insights from Xiamen

Enhancing the urban adaptive capacity (UAC) is crucial for mitigating the risks posed by extreme climate hazards. While UAC components are often evaluated independently, their interactions remain underexplored. To address this research gap, this study integrates the risk impact chain and resilience framework, focusing on six key dimensions— readiness, redundancy, robustness, resistance, recovery, and reflectiveness—to comprehensively investigate UAC across pre-, during-, and post-disaster phases. Structural equation modeling is employed to reveal the internal relationships among UAC components and identify critical impact pathways. Drawing on empirical data from 2013 to 2022 in Xiamen City, China, the study identified three effective pathways that significantly enhance UAC, notably emphasizing the indirect role of governance expenditure in promoting technology and services through infrastructure sufficiency and public attention. These findings highlight the structural mediating role of infrastructure sufficiency and civic engagement, with total mediation effect demonstrating high statistical significance (p < 0.001). While Xiamen was selected as the case study due to its high exposure to seasonal extreme rainfall and rapid urban development, the insights generated have broader implications. The results showed that the temporal evolution of adaptive strategies—from reactive responses to proactive preparedness. Spatially, areas demonstrating higher adaptive capacity generally coincide with more mature infrastructure systems and higher-quality social services. This study underscores the critical influence of public engagement in shaping adaptive pathways and suggests that participatory governance mechanisms can play an important role in advancing societal preparedness for climate-related risks.