Do Climate-Adaptive City Pilot Policy effectively mitigate climate risks?-A quasi-natural experiment from Chinese prefecture-level cities

Against the backdrop of intensifying climate change, enhancing urban climate adaptability is crucial for achieving sustainable development. Based on panel data from 165 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2010 to 2021, this study treats the 2017 Climate-Adaptive City Pilot Policy as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to examine its impact on urban climate risks and the underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that climate-adaptive city initiatives significantly reduce climate risk levels in pilot cities, and this conclusion remains robust across a series of robustness checks. The policy primarily mitigates climate risks by improving urban infrastructure systems and enhancing public environmental awareness. Moreover, stronger environmental regulation further amplifies the policy effects. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effects vary across city types, with more pronounced risk-reduction impacts in non-old industrial base cities (NOIBCs) and non-resource-based cities (NRBCs). In addition, spatial effect estimates reveal that the pilot policy exerts a positive influence on the climate adaptability of neighboring cities, exhibiting significant spatial spillover effects. This study provides empirical evidence for the scientific evaluation of climate adaptation policies and offers decision-making references for differentiated policy design.