Carbon emission drivers and coupling coordination analysis of residential central heating in northern China

Residential central heating carbon emissions (RCHCE) pose a significant challenge to China's dual-carbon targets. It is crucial to gain a comprehensive understanding of the driving mechanisms of RCHCE and the rationality of heating across provinces to formulate localized carbon reduction strategies. This research quantified RCHCE in Northern China between 2006 and 2019. The spatiotemporal variations in RCHCE and the rationality of heating were comprehensively analyzed using standard deviation ellipses, interpretable machine learning, generalized additive models, and coupled coordination degree models. Results indicate that RCHCE peaked at 364.36 MtCO 2 in 2016 and subsequently showed a declining trend, while heat supply from power plant-based continued to increase. Liaoning recorded the highest average RCHCE of 62.63 MtCO 2 during the study period. The centroid remained consistently located in Hebei, following a migration trajectory from southwest to southeast to northeast. The residential heating area exerted the strongest influence on RCHCE, with a coefficient of 0.38. Threshold values for each factor's impact on RCHCE were determined through nonlinear analysis. The coupling coordination degree between the heating area and residential centralized heating intensity showed an upward trend in each province, while that related to population size remained relatively stable. Shandong and Liaoning consistently led the nation in coupling coordination degree for both heating areas and populations. The research findings can provide a basis for formulating differentiated strategies for carbon emission reduction in centralized residential heating systems.