From avoided emissions to potential credits: A simulation-based case study of helicopter-to-eVTOL substitution in São Paulo

The São Paulo Metropolitan Region (RMSP) concentrates Brazil’s highest helicopter activity and is a relevant case for assessing potential Urban Air Mobility (UAM) emission reductions. However, reproducible estimates of aviation-emission reductions and potential carbon credits from replacing helicopters with electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOLs), using simulation-based trajectories constrained by the Special Helicopter Routes (REH) network and empirical operations, remain scarce. This article develops a simulation-based case-study procedure that derives operational activity as aggregated three-dimensional (3D) distance from an RMSP helicopter scenario derived from the Brazilian Air Traffic Movement Information Database (BIMTRA) and simulated in BlueSky across conflict-resolution regimes, converting it into energy use, carbon dioxide equivalent ( CO 2 e ) emissions, and potential credits through transparent factors. The comparison is conducted as a one-to-one replacement of intra-RMSP helicopter operations by eVTOL operations under consistent service assumptions and a weighted helicopter fleet-mix baseline. Results for 146 operations with both origin and destination inside the RMSP show central avoided emissions of 10.27 tonnes of CO 2 e (tCO 2 e) for full replacement in the conflict-resolution case with a 60 s lookahead time, equivalent to 10.27 potential credits, with Monte Carlo analysis indicating a mean relative reduction of 92.11% under the sampled parameter ranges. The case indicates that estimated eVTOL climate benefits in the RMSP are mainly conditioned by electricity-grid carbon intensity, baseline helicopter fuel intensity, and monitorable activity. The approach is simple, adaptable, and suitable for preliminary Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV)-oriented screening of UAM scenarios.