How neighborhood crime, built environment, life events, and attitudes influence vehicle acquisitions: A retrospective analysis of purchase, body type, and vintage decisions

Abstract Neighborhood crime exposure is an underexplored yet critical factor in shaping household vehicle decisions. While prior research has acknowledged the influence of crime and perceived safety on various dimensions of travel behavior, no studies to date have directly examined how crime affects vehicle ownership and type choice. This study incorporates crime indicators into a longitudinal, life course–oriented framework. Drawing on a 10-year retrospective survey in Chicago, the analysis links household vehicle purchases to socio-demographics, life events, housing changes, personal attitudes, built environment characteristics, and neighborhood crime data. A nested logit model is employed to jointly capture both the decision to purchase a vehicle and the subsequent choice of vehicle body type and vintage. Results reveal that exposure to crime, particularly violent and property crimes, increases the likelihood of vehicle purchase and shifts preferences toward used vehicles. In addition, life events such as marriage, childbirth, job changes, and residential moves significantly influence both purchase and type decisions, while built environment factors such as residential density and transit access reduce the probability of vehicle acquisition. This study advances the literature by integrating personal, spatial, psychological, and safety-related factors in a unified modeling framework. Findings highlight the importance of integrating neighborhood safety with transportation and land-use policies to effectively reduce car dependency. The results also suggest that life transitions offer critical opportunities for mobility interventions and sustainable vehicle choice programs.