Assessment of the performance of non-invasive risk models to predict incident type 2 diabetes in a Swedish population – Västerbotten Intervention Programme

Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome Clinical Research & Reviews 2026 Open access

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Authors: Melony Fortuin-de Smidt, Olov Rolandsson, Simon J. Griffin, Patrik Wennberg
DOI: 10.1016/j.dsx.2026.103379
Cited by: 1
References: 39

Abstract

We assessed the performance of non-invasive risk prediction models to predict 10-year incident type 2 diabetes in a large Swedish cohort. Using the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) cohort, which includes serial oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs), we assessed discrimination (concordance (c)-statistic) and calibration (expected-to-observed probability ratio, integrated calibration index, calibration slope and plots) before and after recalibration in twelve non-invasive models. Incident diabetes cases were determined by an OGTT at a 10-year follow-up visit or through previously validated register-based cases. Among 91708 VIP participants, the 10-year diabetes incidence was 2.8%. Most models had acceptable discrimination (c-statistic ≥0.70 and

Fields of Study & Subjects

Diabetes Cardiovascular Risks and Lipoproteins Statistical Methods in Epidemiology Advanced Causal Inference Techniques

Publication details

Journal / source
Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome Clinical Research & Reviews
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Volume
20
Issue
2
Pages
103379–103379
Publication date
30 January 2026
Language
EN