WITHDRAWN: The governance premium: de-risking renewable energy in the belt and road initiative

To achieve sustained decarbonization, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economies must enhance the environmental effectiveness of their renewable energy investments. While renewable energy consumption (REC) is recognized for mitigating CO 2 emissions, its actual impact is inconsistent, creating a critical research gap regarding the contingent institutional and technological factors that shape its efficacy. This study analyses a tri-continental panel of eight BRI economies (2000–2021) to model CO 2 emissions as a function of REC, moderated by Government Effectiveness (GE), Technological Innovation (TI), and R&D intensity, with key macroeconomic controls. To rigorously address endogeneity from simultaneity and omitted variables, we employ an advanced estimation framework combining Fixed Effects with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, IV 2-SLS, IV 2-Step GMM, and Feasible GLS. Results confirm that REC significantly reduces emissions, but its effectiveness is critically contingent on national conditions. Strong institutions, proxied by GE, substantially enhance REC’s mitigating impact. Conversely, prevailing technological innovation exhibits a negative moderating effect, suggesting misaligned innovation structures in industrializing economies. R&D intensity shows a weaker positive influence. The findings robustly underscore that RE expansion alone is insufficient. Integrated decarbonization strategies must simultaneously strengthen governance and realign innovation systems toward mission-oriented, environmental goals.