Policy pathways for clean energy and climate mitigation: insights from long-term scenario modelling

The energy sector in Pakistan continuously relying on imported fossil fuels, which remain costly, contribute to air pollution, and increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model is used to compare three electricity supply scenarios between 2021 and 2050, including a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, the Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy (AREP 2019) scenario, and a higher target Sustainable Pathway (SP) scenario. The scenarios are compared to evaluate the capabilities of renewable energy policies and interventions in ensuring that energy supply is secured, and climate change is mitigated in the context of Sustainable Development Goals (especially SDG 7 on clean energy and SDG 13 on climate action). The modelling outcomes estimate that by 2050, the electricity demand in Pakistan will be around 1489 TWh, whereas the GHG emissions will increase from 100 MtCO 2 -e(2025) to 564.7 MtCO 2 -e annually under BAU. Conversely, the SP scenario, by contrast, where a faster switch to renewables is assumed, would limit 2050 emissions to approximately 34 MtCO 2 -e, with more than 90% reduction over BAU. Moreover, SP scenario is consistent with cost benchmarks of Pakistan’s IGCEP plan. However, achieving this level assumes significant grid infrastructure upgrades, including advanced transmission and smart distribution systems, which are under ongoing development in Pakistan. These findings highlight Pakistan’s urgent need to speed up the move toward renewable energy. Using the country’s large, unused renewable resources through better policies and investments is essential for improving energy security and protecting the environment from climate change.