Techno-economic feasibility of hybrid renewable systems and green hydrogen production in special economic zones (SEZs)

• Framework Development for Hybrid Energy System Optimization in Pakistan’s Specific Environmental Conditions. • Evaluation of whether green hydrogen generation with hybrid systems highlights an economical addition to SEZ operations. • Detailed overview of opportunities for renewable energy sources and storage technology integration across Pakistan’s multiple geographical areas. • Proposal of recommendation-based policy guidance to help the industrial sector of Pakistan implement hybrid energy systems. Pakistan’s fossil-heavy power mix drives cost volatility and rising emissions. We assess hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) for five Special Economic Zones (SEZs), Allama Iqbal Industrial City (AIIC), Bostan, Dhabeji, Mohmand Marble City (MMC), and Rashakai, using RETScreen with policy-aware finance, export-meter accounting, and a combined-margin grid baseline (0.56 tCO 2 MWh −1 ). The preferred portfolio (∼0.53 GW of PV, wind, and canal-drop hydro) exports ≈1.30 TWh yr −1 at ∼$42–49 MWh −1 LCOE while avoiding ≈728 ktCO 2 yr −1 . Site comparisons show Dhabeji delivers the largest energy export (∼413 GWh yr −1 ) and highest abatement (∼231 ktCO 2 yr −1 ); Bostan and MMC achieve the fastest paybacks (both 10.3 years); AIIC provides a scalable 200-MW anchor (payback 11.6 years); and Rashakai contributes ∼ 261 GWh yr −1 with 10.6-year payback. Power-to-X analysis of modeled surplus (central case: 10% surplus, PEM 70% efficiency; 47.6 kWh kg −1 SEC) yields ≈2.73 kt H 2 yr −1 at ∼$6.10–6.43 kg −1 LCOH. Separately accounting carbon revenues, electricity-displacement and green-hydrogen credits together provide ≈$3.39 M yr −1 at $5 tCO 2 −1 (net of a 10% MRV haircut), scaling proportionally with price. Overall, the portfolio offers a replicable pathway for SEZ decarbonization, prioritizing Dhabeji for grid impact, Bostan/MMC for rapid cash recovery, and AIIC as a bankable anchor.