Chemical looping combustion for CO2 capture in waste-to-energy: A techno-economic analysis

• Commercial 90 MW th CLC train proposed from pilot-validated simulation. • CLC-WtE achieves 28 % net electric efficiency with 97 % CO 2 capture. • LCOE estimated at 158 €/MWh el ; total CAPEX 108.7 M€ for a 90 MW th CLC train. • Economics are dominated by electricity price, carbon markets, and waste gate fees. Carbon capture from waste-to-energy can enable net-negative emissions through substantial shares of biogenic carbon in many wastes. Chemical looping combustion (CLC) offers an efficient capture route by inherently separating CO 2 , but its commercial scale prospects currently remain uncertain. This study addresses whether CLC can achieve adequate technological and economic performance in the framework of an exemplary waste-to-energy plant at an industrial park in Germany. Utilizing pilot scale data, a process simulation is derived, and a commercial scale CLC plant layout is proposed. The plant achieves a net electric efficiency of 28 % at 90 MW th fuel input, with a carbon capture efficiency of 97.1 %. At an electricity price of 100 €/MWh el the plant is marginally profitable with a net present value of 2.1 M€ (discount rate 15 %, 15-year analysis period). Sensitivity analysis highlights electricity price, CO 2 price, and waste-fuel gate fees as the dominant factors, whereas CLC related costs are found secondary. Relative to a post-combustion amine benchmark for the same site, CLC shows substantially lower variable operating costs (∼60 €/t‑CO 2 less), while amine retains a capital cost advantage for retrofits. Overall, CLC for waste-to-energy appears technically feasible but its economic viability depends strongly on electricity and carbon price regimes. However, remaining uncertainties motivate demonstration on intermediate scale to de-risk investment and validate long-term operation.