Driving a low-carbon future: a techno-economic case for EV transition

This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic and environmental assessment of transitioning Pakistan’s passenger car fleet from conventional gasoline vehicles to hybrid and electric vehicle (EV) technologies. A bottom-up energy system modeling approach based on the TIMES framework is employed to evaluate future transport energy demand, fuel consumption, costs, and carbon dioxide emissions under alternative vehicle technology penetration scenarios. The analysis considers small, medium, and large passenger cars, incorporating vehicle stock evolution, fuel economy, vehicle kilometers travel, capital and operating costs, and emission factors. Three macroeconomic scenarios: strong, base, and weak economic growth are examined to capture uncertainties in future transport demand and investment capacity. According to model outcomes, EV penetration starting in 2021 can reach at least 40% of the total passenger car stock in 2040 (2.3–2.7 million electric vehicles) depending on economic growth conditions. In the strong economy, the transition lowers the consumption of gasoline, which is about 51 PJ a year in 2040, although the EVs share only 17.7% of the total transport energy demand. The total CO 2 emissions decrease to a level of 5.2 Mt in 2040 relative to a no-EV case, and zero tailpipe emissions of electric vehicles do not offset their high market share. Though EVs have higher initial capital expenditures, they take 42–43% of the total costs of passenger car systems but provide tremendous long-term payback in terms of fuel consumption and emissions. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates that fuel price reforms, fiscal incentives, and the implementation of the charging infrastructure, are essential enablers of the massive implementation of EVs. All in all, the findings suggest that the electrification of the Pakistani passenger car industry shows that this is a technically viable and ecologically efficient route to decrease energy consumption and emissions, and the findings can be used to quantify and develop evidence-based transport and energy policymaking in developing economies