Integration of space based solar power into a scaling lunar ISRU based infrastructure and economy

• Monte Carlo model proposed to compare performance parameters of 4 SBSP architectures. • In-situ and ex-situ resource use outputs define rate limiting ISRU technologies. • Lunar made surface panels may achieve $32.13/kWh with 53 MW output. • Modeled LCOE values range from 1.24 to 387.25 $/kWh depending on architecture. The presented work compares the viability of four space based solar power architectures that have the potential to support a sustainable future lunar economy. The architectures cover solar panels manufactured on the Earth or Moon and used in lunar orbit or on the surface. Key performance parameters such as the levelized cost of energy, the power generation capacity, and the present cost of the solar power architectures are calculated in a Monte Carlo simulation. The mean simulation values, along with 5% and 95% confidence intervals demonstrate the range of potential outputs based on the simulation. It is shown that depending on the goals of the agencies or companies implementing space based solar power, lunar made solar cells could be a viable technology to enable a sustainable ISRU based lunar economy that expands lunar surface exploration capabilities and uses thousands of tonnes of in-situ material each year. Levelized cost of energy values are calculated to range from $1.24/kWh for Earth made panels on the lunar surface to $387.25/kWh for lunar made panels operating in lunar orbit, beaming power to the surface. The sensitivity of model inputs on the architecture performance parameters are quantified and discussed. The sensitivity of ISRU scaling rate and magnitude on the performance is also quantified to demonstrate that significant cost savings can be made with rapid scaling of space based solar power.