The Green Power Market: sustainable policy for achieving green development and renewable energy synergies

• The Iranian Green Power Board (GPB) executed 1.65 TWh of renewable electricity trades in 2024, totaling USD 1.17 billion in market turnover. • Solar PV accounted for 81% of traded volume, wind 16%, and small hydro 3%, reflecting both installed capacity and economic competitiveness. • GMPI projections for 2035 under five scenarios show the High Participation (S5) scenario achieving the highest sustainability score (0.895), driven by market expansion and broader participation. • Employment, public participation, and consumer welfare indices peak under Incentive (S2) and Combined (S4) scenarios, highlighting the importance of financial and regulatory support. • Policy insights suggest GCC economies can optimize renewable market growth by combining capacity expansion, market incentives, and regulatory enforcement to achieve integrated economic, environmental, and social benefits. This study provides the first empirical evaluation of Iran’s Green Power Market (GPM) as an operational renewable electricity trading platform in a hydrocarbon-dependent economy. Using a mixed-method framework combining semi-log econometric modeling, scenario simulation (2025–2035), and a composite Green Market Performance Index (GMPI) based on PCA–TOPSIS integration, the study assesses economic, environmental, and institutional performance under five policy pathways. Regression results show that renewable investment (elasticity = 0.72) and institutional enforcement (0.65) are the dominant drivers of traded volume, while CO 2 avoidance exerts a complementary effect (0.18). Scenario projections indicate that the High Participation pathway achieves the highest sustainability performance (GMPI = 0.895), generating 8,180 jobs, 16% renewable penetration, and 602 kton CO 2 reduction. The findings demonstrate that market participation depth and institutional credibility are more influential than financial incentives alone. The GPM provides an adaptable policy model for fossil-fuel-dependent economies seeking to institutionalize market-based renewable electricity trading mechanisms.