Recycling matters – The role of secondary production in metal markets

In an effort to ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns, recycling has been recognized as one key strategy. With technological advancements further enabling more efficient material recovery, recycling is set to emerge as an influential force in global metal markets, reshaping traditional supply-demand dynamics. To better understand the role of secondary production and its interdependencies within these markets, we employ structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models to simultaneously analyze the relationships between primary and secondary supply, demand, convenience yield, and futures prices from 2010 to 2023. The analysis highlights the critical role of recycling in the aluminum and lead markets, significantly influencing prices, consumption and, convenience yield, helping to mitigate scarcity and lower commodity prices. In contrast, the dynamics of the copper market are dominated by primary producers, reflecting their larger share of total production volume. While primary producers struggle to adapt to market changes quickly, our findings show that secondary production is highly responsive, particularly to fluctuations in futures prices. This responsiveness highlights the ability of recyclers to increase production volumes when market conditions become more profitable. Our findings underscore the contribution of recycling to an efficient market and emphasize its importance in a sustainable and circular metal industry. • Secondary production is found to significantly influence market dynamics. • Recyclers are highly responsive, particularly to fluctuations in futures prices. • Influence is greater in markets with a higher level of recycling implementation.