Deciphering culprits for cyanobacterial blooms and lake vulnerability in north-temperate lakes

Harmful cyanobacterial blooms (CBs) are increasingly prevalent worldwide, posing significant environmental and health concerns. We derive a stoichiometric model describing the population dynamics and toxicity of cyanobacteria in north-temperate freshwater ecosystems. Our model quantifies the hypoxic effects of CBs on fish mortality and evaluates the impact of microcystin-LR (MC-LR) on aquatic macro-invertebrates, phytoplankton, and fish species. Analysing data from three north-temperate lakes with varying physical characteristics, we identify eutrophication as a pivotal catalyst in bloom proliferation. Under predicted warming scenarios coupled with increased eutrophication, peak MC-LR concentrations will surge dramatically, and blooms will occur earlier in the year. We predict substantial model-derived bioaccumulation of MC-LR in higher trophic species, with heterogeneous responses among fish at intermediate trophic levels across lakes. We compare our model against observations from several north-temperate lakes, demonstrating its robustness and applicability. Our insights are critical for informing targeted interventions to mitigate CBs.