Unpacking the countercyclicality of post-secondary enrollment in the United States

Using data from the Current Population Survey’s Education Supplement, we examine the countercyclicality of post-secondary education (PSE) enrollment in the U.S. between 1977 and 2023. The unemployment–enrollment relationship is weak prior to 2000 and when Covid-19 years are included, but it is much stronger in 2000-2019. Focusing on these two decades, we show that higher unemployment increases enrollment at both 2- and 4-year colleges. We also show that persistence (continued enrollment among prior PSE participants) accounts for a larger share of the countercyclicality than matriculation (new enrollments). As for matriculation, eighteen-year-olds experience a particularly pronounced increase in the probability of starting a 2-year college degree when unemployment is high. We also find that men in their 20s are more likely to start a 4-year college degree when economic conditions deteriorate.