From mines to markets: Gravity model insights on critical raw material trade

Access to critical raw materials (CRMs) is increasingly shaped by geopolitical dynamics, sparking a global competition for supply security. Using the gravity model of trade, we examine how OECD countries leverage Aid for Trade (AfT), Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs), and Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) to influence CRM imports from developing countries. Panel data from 1995-2023 show that while intensive-margin effects of North-South PTAs appear economically negligible in the global trade equilibrium, these agreements play a strategic role in facilitating market entry and shaping supply-chain geography. Our results underscore that a coordinated mix of trade diplomacy, investment frameworks, and targeted aid is key to resilient and diversified CRM access for OECD countries.