Safe havens or war hedges? Asset behavior during the 2026 escalation of the Iran conflict

Economics Letters 2026 Open access

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Authors: Andrea Paltrinieri, Salvatore Perdichizzi, Stefano Piserà
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113010
Cited by: 3
References: 9

Abstract

We examine whether the late-February 2026 escalation of the Iran conflict revived the safe-haven role of traditional and alternative assets. Using daily Refinitiv data, an event-study design, and interaction regressions with global equity returns, we analyze gold, Bitcoin, oil, and European natural gas (TTF) around the conflict escalation. Gold provides, at best, weak safe-haven properties, with no significant abnormal returns and higher volatility during the event window. Bitcoin offers no robust protection. Oil displays the clearest short-run hedge, but because its payoff is directly exposed to war-related supply risk. The evidence points to war hedges rather than a broad re-emergence of genuinely safe assets.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Economic Sanctions and International Relations Market Dynamics and Volatility Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones

Publication details

Journal / source
Economics Letters
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Volume
265
Pages
113010–113010
Publication date
22 April 2026
Language
EN