Scenario-based mapping of state-level green hydrogen potential in Mexico: Policy-relevant insights from a multi-technology framework

Mexico’s energy system remains fossil-intensive, and green hydrogen could enable decarbonization where direct electrification is difficult. This study develops a spatial screening framework to estimate green-hydrogen production potential and plant-gate levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) across Mexico’s 32 states by linking solar and wind resources, land suitability, water availability, and grid proximity with techno-economic trajectories for alkaline (AWE), proton-exchange membrane (PEM), and solid-oxide (SOEC) electrolysis over 2025–2060. An on-grid boundary is defined in which electrolyzers draw grid electricity priced at the state-mean wholesale or power-purchase agreement (PPA) price (i.e., without dedicated on-site generation). Under this boundary, national-average LCOH in 2030 is 5.35 USD kg⁻¹ (AWE), 5.37 USD kg⁻¹ (PEM), and 4.46 USD kg⁻¹ (SOEC), declining by 2060 to 4.80, 4.84, and 3.47 USD kg⁻¹, respectively. Spatial disparities are pronounced: northern states (notably Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Sonora) show the highest modeled production potential, while Oaxaca exhibits the lowest modeled costs and Ciudad de México the highest. Sensitivity analysis indicates electricity price and system efficiency are the dominant cost drivers, with capital expenditure secondary. Policy priorities are to (i) focus early deployment and permitting in high-potential, grid-proximate states, (ii) reduce delivered electricity costs via clean-power contracting and tariff/wheeling reforms, and (iii) coordinate interconnection upgrades and water sourcing (including reuse/desalination where needed) in priority corridors. Overall, the framework identifies subnational hotspots and near-term levers to accelerate deployment consistent with Mexico’s mid-century goals.