Scaling green hydrogen in Europe: who’s ready?

The European Union (EU) has set legally binding targets for the uptake of renewable hydrogen and synthetic fuels under the Renewable Energy Directive, making these key pillars of its 2030 decarbonisation strategy. This study examines whether current national commitments are consistent with EU-level ambitions by analysing Member States’ updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). A combined methodological approach integrates a policy maturity assessment with simple dynamic modelling to evaluate the credibility and feasibility of hydrogen deployment across Europe. The NECPs analysis reveals a persistent gap between targets and implementation, shaped by uneven policy progress, with only a small group of frontrunner countries approaching full readiness. The modelling results indicate that meeting projected 2030 RFNBO demand would require approximately 92.5 GW of electrolyser capacity, compared with around 67 GW currently targeted by Member States. Scenario and sensitivity analyses further show that domestic production alone is unlikely to meet projected demand, with hydrogen imports supplying an estimated 30–62% of EU demand across the assessed scenarios. Taken together, these findings show that current implementation efforts are not yet aligned with the scale of EU 2030 renewable hydrogen ambitions. Closing this gap will require an accelerated deployment of electrolysers, stronger policy implementation, and enhanced cross-border governance to support a coherent and resilient European hydrogen transition.