Balancing energy security and carbon emissions in China: The roles of renewable energy and environmental regulation

Although research on energy security (ENS) and carbon emissions (CE) is extensive, few studies have addressed their nonlinear dynamics and spatial spillover effects, or systematically explored the roles of renewable energy development and environmental regulation in shaping this relationship. Using panel data for 30 Chinese provinces from 2008 to 2022, this study adopts a spatial Durbin model to investigate the ENS-CE nexus and employs a multinomial logit model to assess the roles of renewable energy and environmental regulation in such trade-offs. The results indicate significant spatial agglomeration of ENS and CE. ENS exerts a U-shaped direct effect and an inverted U-shaped indirect effect on CE. Renewable energy development helps prevent the simultaneous deterioration of ENS and CE, but does not significantly promote their synergistic improvement. Instead, it increases the likelihood of a trade-off scenario in which CE is reduced at the expense of ENS. Environmental regulation fosters synergy and mitigates the risk of emission reductions due to declining ENS. These findings provide new insights into the complex interplay between energy security and carbon mitigation and offer policy guidance for balancing stability and decarbonisation in China’s energy transition.