Nexus of geo-political risk, policy uncertainties and renewable energy production: The moderating roles of governance components

This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk, climate policy uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, and energy-related uncertainty on renewable energy production in ASEAN and East Asian countries, while examining the moderating role of governance quality across six dimensions. Using a comprehensive panel dataset from 1990 to 2024, the analysis employs Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), panel Granger causality, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL), and structural break tests to capture long-run relationships, directional causality, asymmetric effects, and temporal shocks. The findings reveal that uncertainties, particularly economic policy uncertainty and geo-political risk, negatively affect renewable energy output, especially in weaker institutional environments. Governance dimensions such as control of corruption, government effectiveness, and political stability significantly moderate these impacts, while others governance indicators show limited or selective interaction effects. The NARDL results highlight asymmetric responses, where positive changes in uncertainty drive more pronounced impacts than negative shifts. Structural break analysis confirms the evolving nature of uncertainty effects during major global crises. The study underscores the importance of governance-sensitive and adaptive policy frameworks to shield clean energy productions from volatility and enhance energy resilience across the region.