Another world is possible: Exploring 100% renewable energy supply scenarios for Mexico to 2050

In 2025, Mexico updated its Nationally Determined Contribution proposal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve a 50% share of renewable energy in electricity generation by 2050. However, this is not enough to achieve its energy decarbonization. Using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP), the complete Mexican Energy System (MES) was modeled and the feasibility of a complete transition of the final energy supply to renewable energies was assessed. Three energy demand scenarios were prepared according to different federal government plans for 2050 are compared: Trend with 12,823 PJ ; Reference, with 9744 PJ; and Transition, with 5312 PJ . For each of these demands, two supply scenarios were analyzed, one with the 2019 energy demand structure and another covered 100% with technical demonstrated renewable energie sources and proved technology. The results indicate that, even in the highest-demand scenario, it is technical feasible to satisfy the whole energy demand with renewable sources by 2050. The role of solar PV energy to cover substantial increments of the electricity demand requiring at least 2.6 times the 2019 electricity demand in all the analysed scenarios, must be highlighted. The incorporation of hydrogen and biofuels into the energy supply of the industrial and transportation sectors is crucial to comply with the decarbonization of the MES; as well as the installation of energy storage systems that minimize the variability of renewable sources. Only the possible renewable energy resources and actual technologies in Mexico were considered for this study, which will be the basis for elaborating additional economic, environmental and social policies; in order to establish possible routes for the decarbonization of Mexico.